Bitcoin Price Galloping Delusions
Bitcoin Will Not Hit $1 Million in 5-10 Years
If Cryptocoins News article represents truth, than latest addition to the will-o’-the-wisp circuit of insanity seems to be Wences Casares, CEO of bitcoin wallet Xapo and member of PayPal’s board of directors. He has apparently made the most insane forecast on the Bitcoin’s value over the next decade thus far: “Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million in 5-10 Years, Says PayPal Director,” the headline screams.
I get click-baits and sensational headlines but this is slowly becoming troubling, as the bubble fed craze reaches the point of sheer madness.
To believe $1,000.000 per a Bitcoin will happen is so wacky that I am using only rough numbers for the following calculation. Today’s 16,400.000 or so BTC in existence would be — at 1,975 new bitcoins produced every day (source of data is the Blockchain Info website) — a TOTAL of 23,608,750 BTC in ten years.
— roughly 2,883,500 new BTC until next halving, during the first 4 years
— roughly 4,325,250 new BTC after next halving, during the subsequent 6 years.
So it represents a TOTAL of 23,608,750 BTC x $1M each = $23,608,750,000,000 or TWENTY THREE (23) TRILLION Market Cap!!
Does anyone really thinks this is not flat-out insane?
All that ongoing BTC price related insanity made me think of one more funny outcome. Say tomorrow everyone is being paid in BTC i.e. it is a global currency now because it is ah so great that it would be $1M per BTC in 10 years. If so, why would anyone buy anything with Bitcoin if their BTC will keep going up until it reaches $1M per BTC?
I guess that everyone would prefer hoarding Bitcoins, as they do today, as their paper, rather digital wealth increases dramatically. The result? Most of the people lose their jobs for no one is buying their services or products.
This is why I think we should pause a bit and think what Bitcoin was meant to be: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, not an insanely inflated digital asset bubble. Until it pops, today or at $3K or at $100K, enjoy the ride. And beware, if you’re buying BTC on margin one day you might wake up totally cleaned up of your assets and your dreams.